We provide the first sharp characterization of the optimal first-order query complexity of agnostic active learning, and propose a new general active learning algorithm which achieves it. Remarkably, the optimal query complexity admits a leading term which is always strictly smaller than the sample complexity of passive supervised learning (by a factor proportional to the best-in-class error rate). This was not previously known to be possible. For comparison, in all previous general analyses, the leading term exhibits an additional factor, such as the disagreement coefficient or related complexity measures, and therefore only provides improvements over passive learning in restricted cases. The present work completely removes such factors from the leading term, implying that every concept class benefits from active learning in the non-realizable case. Whether such benefits are possible has been the driving question underlying the past two decades of research on the theory of agnostic active learning. This work finally settles this fundamental question.

How does the training data affect a model's behavior? This is the question we seek to answer with data attribution. The leading practical approaches to data attribution are based on influence functions (IF). IFs utilize a first-order Taylor approximation to efficiently predict the effect of removing a set of samples from the training set without retraining the model, and are used in a wide variety of machine learning applications. However, especially in the high-dimensional regime (# params Ω(# samples)), they are often imprecise and tend to underestimate the effect of sample removals, even for simple models such as logistic regression. We present rescaled influence functions (RIF), a tool for data attribution which can be used as a dropin replacement for influence functions, with little computational overhead but significant improvement in accuracy. We compare IF and RIF on a range of realworld datasets, showing that RIFs offer significantly better predictions in practice, and present a theoretical analysis explaining this improvement. Finally, we present a simple class of data poisoning attacks that would fool IF-based detections but would be detected by RIF.

We propose a practical sequential test for auditing differential privacy guarantees of black-box mechanisms. The test processes streams of mechanisms' outputs providing anytime-valid inference while controlling Type I error, overcoming the fixed sample size limitation of previous batch auditing methods. Experiments show this test detects violations with sample sizes that are orders of magnitude smaller than existing methods, reducing this number from 50K to a few hundred examples, across diverse realistic mechanisms. Notably, it identifies DP-SGD privacy violations in under one training run, unlike prior methods needing full model training.

In spite of their prevalence, the behaviour of Neural Networks when extrapolating far from the training distribution remains poorly understood, with existing results limited to specific cases. In this work, we prove general results--the first of their kind--by applying Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) theory to analyse infinitelywide neural networks trained until convergence and prove that the inclusion of just one Layer Norm (LN) fundamentally alters the induced NTK, transforming it into a bounded-variance kernel. As a result, the output of an infinitely wide network with at least one LN remains bounded, even on inputs far from the training data. In contrast, we show that a broad class of networks without LN can produce pathologically large outputs for certain inputs. We support these theoretical findings with empirical experiments on finite-width networks, demonstrating that while standard NNs often exhibit uncontrolled growth outside the training domain, a single LN layer effectively mitigates this instability. Finally, we explore real-world implications of this extrapolatory stability, including applications to predicting residue sizes in proteins larger than those seen during training and estimating age from facial images of underrepresented ethnicities absent from the training set.

We study value-iteration (VI) algorithms for solving general (a.k.a.

Most methods for finding a Nash equilibrium rely on procedures that operate over the entire action space, making them infeasible for settings with too many actions to be searched exhaustively. Randomised search heuristics such as coevolutionary algorithms offer benefits in such settings, however they lack many of the theoretical guarantees established for exhaustive methods such as zero-regret learning. We address this by developing a method for proving necessary and sufficient conditions for a coevolutionary algorithm to be stable, in the sense that it reliably retains a Nash equilibrium following discovery. As the method provides bounds that are adapted to both application and algorithm instance, it can be used as a practical tool for parameter configuration. We additionally show how bounds on regret may be deduced from our results and undertake corresponding empirical analysis.

Constrained Bayesian optimization (CBO) methods have seen significant success in black-box optimization with constraints. One of the most commonly used CBO methods is the constrained expected improvement (CEI) algorithm. CEI is a natural extension of expected improvement (EI) when constraints are incorporated. However, the theoretical convergence rate of CEI has not been established. In this work, we study the convergence rate of CEI by analyzing its simple regret upper bound.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distributionfree, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data-- e.g., from a generative model--to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPIprovably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPIyields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification--augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images--and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

We investigate refinements of the mean-payoff criterion in two-player zero-sum perfect-information stochastic games. A strategy is Blackwell optimal if it is optimal in the discounted game for all discount factors sufficiently close to 1.

Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are interested in estimating the effects of a policy intervention whose benefits, while potentially important, can only be observed and measured in rare yet impactful events, such as extreme climate events? The standard causal inference methodology is not designed for this type of inference since the events of interest may be scarce in the observed data and some degree of extrapolation is necessary. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) provides methodologies for analyzing statistical phenomena in such extreme regimes. We introduce a novel framework for assessing treatment effects in extreme data to capture the causal effect at the occurrence of rare events of interest. In particular, we employ the theory of multivariate regular variation to model extremities. We develop a consistent estimator for extreme treatment effects and present a rigorous non-asymptotic analysis of its performance. We illustrate the performance of our estimator using both synthetic and semi-synthetic data.